Monthly Archives: September 2013

Syria – A Diplomatic Success?

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The saddest aspect of the Syrian civil war is not the fact that a tyrant has used chemical weapons to attack his own people. It’s not the fact that more than a third of the country’s population has become uprooted and displaced. And it’s not even the fact that over 100,000 people have lost their lives since the conflict erupted over 2 years ago. As awful as it sounds, all those facts are not unique. Relatively speaking, they don’t even have epic proportions – what a sick realisation?! To me, the saddest thing of it all is that the Syrian people and all they are fighting for in this pointless war has been reduced to no more than political rhetoric in the last few days. Everybody is delighted about the “diplomatic solution” the US and Russia have thrown up in the very last minute. Everybody except for the Free Syrian Army… They feel even more disillusioned and left alone than before Obama’s threat of a military intervention. While the leaders of the rest of the world meet around big round tables in modern conference rooms in high-rise buildings in one metropolis or another to discuss the solution to the Assad problem, the Syrians keep dying.

The international community has once again proven to be incapable of dealing with a deranged dictator who is massacring his own people just to stay in power. I am by no means a blatant advocate for a foreign invasion of Syria, for many reasons. In fact, I have very strong opinions on so-called “humanitarian interventions” because I believe that more often than not neither the reasons nor the results are particularly humanitarian. But if there was ever going to be a military intervention in Syria, it should have been at the end of 2011, when it became apparent that the  revolution was not going to be able to overthrow Assad without any outside assistance. And before the rebel groups themselves became radicalised and disintegrated to an extent that makes it almost impossible to differentiate between the ‘good and the bad guys’, since both sides have committed more atrocities than anyone can count.

Political rhetoric. Obama drew his “red line” at the use of chemical weapons – intended as a deterrent rather than a real threat – hoping desperately that Assad will not cross it. Well, he did. So Obama had no choice but to let actions follow his strong words, lest he lose all credibility in the eyes of the world. But even then it was too little too late, and it was all too obvious how reluctant the US President really was. Understandably so, considering Iraq and Libya… With Russian military aid and Chinese backing in the UN Security Council, it stands to reason if Assad really was scared of a US intervention. But the sabre-rattling certainly had an effect on the Syrian opposition movement, who immediately prepared for the US attack, trying to coordinate simultaneous attacks with their allies to maximise the impact. Finally it seemed as though the tables might turn in their favour… But alas, it was not to be. Assad agreed to hand his arsenal of chemical weapons over to the UN. What’s to become of them, no one knows for sure and it doesn’t seem to matter so much anyway. It’s the thought that counts, right? Neither the logistical nightmare of destroying more than 1000 tonnes of chemical weapons in a country which is in the middle of a chaotic civil war – and where more than one faction would be interested in getting a piece of the cake – nor the estimated 1 billion dollars this will cost can stop the international community from rejoicing. All the while, the members of Syria’s opposition shake their heads in disbelief. According to Colonel Abdul Jabbar Akaidi, the commander of the makeshift base of operation for the Free Syrian Army in the city of Aleppo, Assad’s chemical weapons were the least of their worries. It’s the conventional weapons that have caused most of their losses and will continue to do so. And the longer the war drags on, the harder it gets for the more moderate forces among the opposition to control the religious extremists that are already thriving within the ranks.

So while Obama utters a deep sigh of relief, and Putin celebrates himself as the Good Samaritan, and Assad tries to wipe the grin off his face, the Syrians keep dying…  A diplomatic success? As usual when it comes to conflict and international politics, the question remains who are the winners and the losers in the end.